Advanced Foundations skill check

Skills covered

Update a prior with data using Bayes' rule · Explain the roles of prior, likelihood and posterior · Update beliefs sequentially as data arrive · Update a Beta prior with binomial data · Choose a prior and check the sensitivity of conclusions to it · Compute equal-tailed and HPD credible intervals · Interpret credible intervals and contrast them with confidence intervals · Calculate posterior probabilities for decisions · Predict future outcomes with the posterior predictive distribution · Analyse an A/B test with Beta posteriors · Make a decision with expected loss and a threshold · Read variance explained and choose how many components to keep · Interpret PCA loadings and scores · Decide whether to standardise before PCA · Build and read a confusion matrix · Choose and calculate classification metrics · Use ROC/AUC and choose a threshold from error costs · Recognise data leakage in model evaluation · Reason with potential outcomes and counterfactuals · Identify forks, chains and colliders in causal diagrams · Adjust for confounding and judge what adjustment can establish · Identify the limitations of a model · Report results with honest uncertainty and scope

Covers Track 16: Advanced Foundations. Passing it, together with completing every lesson, earns the track certificate.