Probability skill check
Sample spaces, the addition and multiplication rules, conditional probability and independence, two-way tables, trees, Bayes' theorem and base rates, counting, expected value and simulation — calculated on fresh numbers and interpreted. 12 questions, 30 minutes, 70% to pass.
- Questions
- 12
- Time
- 30 min
- Pass mark
- 70%
- Retake after
- 6 h
Skills covered
List sample spaces and events · Compute probabilities of equally likely outcomes · Interpret probability as long-run relative frequency · Use the complement rule · Apply the addition rule · Recognise mutually exclusive events · Calculate conditional probabilities · Read probabilities from two-way tables · Distinguish P(A | B) from P(B | A) · Check whether events are independent · Distinguish independent from mutually exclusive events · Apply the multiplication rule · Use probability trees · Apply the law of total probability · Apply Bayes' theorem · Reason about base rates and predictive values · Use the multiplication principle of counting · Count ordered arrangements (permutations) · Count unordered selections (combinations) · Compute probabilities by counting · Compute an expected value · Compute the variance and SD of a random payoff · Use expected value in decisions, knowing its limits · Estimate probabilities by simulation · Explain the law of large numbers · Judge the precision of a simulation
Covers Track 4: Probability. Passing it, together with completing every lesson, earns the track certificate.
How it works
- Questions are drawn from this assessment's own bank, with numbers generated for your attempt.
- Your answers save automatically. Nothing is graded until you submit or the time runs out (the server keeps the time).
- No hints or feedback during the attempt; full worked solutions afterwards.
- You may use a calculator, the lab and your notes. The assessment is not proctored.