Track 6 · Sampling and the Central Limit Theorem · Lesson 5 of 8
The law of large numbers
State the law of large numbers, use it to explain why averages stabilise, and distinguish it from the gambler's fallacy.
A casino cannot predict whether the next spin of the wheel wins, yet it can budget next year's profit to within a few percent. An insurer cannot say which driver will crash, yet it prices policies with confidence. Both rely on the law of large numbers: averages over many independent trials settle down.
Law of large numbers (LLN). If are independent observations from the same distribution with a finite mean , then the running average gets closer and closer to as grows: for any small tolerance, the chance that is further than that from goes to zero. (The finite-mean condition matters: for an extremely heavy-tailed distribution such as the Cauchy, which has no mean, the running average never settles.)
The same holds for proportions: the proportion of heads in fair tosses approaches 0.5. This is why a long-run relative frequency can serve as a probability, and why large samples estimate population means well.
Included with a Formula Quest membership
It has 7 graded exercises with feedback, hints and worked solutions. After it you will be able to:
- State the law of large numbers for averages and proportions
- Explain why proportions settle while differences in counts keep wandering
- Recognise and correct the gambler's fallacy: dilution, not compensation
- Estimate how many trials are needed for a stable long-run proportion