Track 6 · Sampling and the Central Limit Theorem · Lesson 5 of 8

The law of large numbers

State the law of large numbers, use it to explain why averages stabilise, and distinguish it from the gambler's fallacy.

25 minIntermediate7 graded exercisesMembers

A casino cannot predict whether the next spin of the wheel wins, yet it can budget next year's profit to within a few percent. An insurer cannot say which driver will crash, yet it prices policies with confidence. Both rely on the law of large numbers: averages over many independent trials settle down.

Law of large numbers (LLN). If X1,X2,…X_1, X_2, \dots are independent observations from the same distribution with a finite mean μ\mu, then the running average xˉn=(X1+⋯+Xn)/n\bar{x}_n = (X_1 + \dots + X_n)/n gets closer and closer to μ\mu as nn grows: for any small tolerance, the chance that xˉn\bar{x}_n is further than that from μ\mu goes to zero. (The finite-mean condition matters: for an extremely heavy-tailed distribution such as the Cauchy, which has no mean, the running average never settles.)

The same holds for proportions: the proportion of heads in nn fair tosses approaches 0.5. This is why a long-run relative frequency can serve as a probability, and why large samples estimate population means well.

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It has 7 graded exercises with feedback, hints and worked solutions. After it you will be able to:

  • State the law of large numbers for averages and proportions
  • Explain why proportions settle while differences in counts keep wandering
  • Recognise and correct the gambler's fallacy: dilution, not compensation
  • Estimate how many trials are needed for a stable long-run proportion