“Our customers love the new menu: 92% of the diners who filled in our feedback form rated it 5 stars.” Choose… Voluntary-response sample Counts compared instead of rates Association presented as causation Survivorship / selecting on the outcome Cherry-picked starting point (regression to the mean)
“Since we installed the new signs in March, accidents at the junction have fallen 60%” — March followed the worst winter on record. Choose… Voluntary-response sample Counts compared instead of rates Association presented as causation Survivorship / selecting on the outcome Cherry-picked starting point (regression to the mean)
“Cities with more cafés have higher incomes, so opening cafés boosts the local economy.” Choose… Voluntary-response sample Counts compared instead of rates Association presented as causation Survivorship / selecting on the outcome Cherry-picked starting point (regression to the mean)
“Region A had 1,200 car thefts and Region B only 300, so Region A is far less safe.” Choose… Voluntary-response sample Counts compared instead of rates Association presented as causation Survivorship / selecting on the outcome Cherry-picked starting point (regression to the mean)
“Start-ups founded by university drop-outs are the most successful,” based on the ten most valuable start-ups. Choose… Voluntary-response sample Counts compared instead of rates Association presented as causation Survivorship / selecting on the outcome Cherry-picked starting point (regression to the mean)