Nakhla Fitness mid-year re-forecast

The engagement

Nakhla Fitness Co. (a fictional chain of gyms; all money in SAR thousand unless stated) has closed the first six months of FY2026. Membership grew more slowly in the spring than the budget assumed, and a summer promotion lowered the average fee. The CFO wants the mid-year re-forecast for the board pack: where will FY2026 EBITDA land against budget, and why?

You have the phased FY2026 budget, the January–June ledger actuals and management's updated drivers for July–December. The budget is the fixed yardstick: never overwrite it.

Deliverables

Complete every white cell with a formula linked to Inputs or to other tabs — no typed numbers. The workbook is re-tested with different inputs, so typed results will be found.

Conventions (follow exactly)

• Favourable is positive. Revenue, EBITDA and member-months: latest estimate (or actual) − budget. Cost lines: budget − latest estimate (or actual). Variance % = variance ÷ budget. Label each Variance line "F" when the variance is zero or positive and "A" otherwise, using IF.
• Latest estimate (LE) = Jan–Jun actual + Jul–Dec forecast, line by line.
• Members: average members = (opening + closing) ÷ 2, where a month's opening is the previous month's closing (December 2025's closing opens January). For July–December: closing = opening + joiners − leavers, and leavers = monthly churn × opening members. July opens at June's actual closing members.
• Member-months = the sum of monthly average members. The budget's member-months are the sum of its monthly average members.
• Revenue = average members × membership fee ÷ 1,000 (fee in SAR, revenue in SAR k). Direct costs = average members × direct cost per member ÷ 1,000. Use the forecast fee and cost rate for July–December.
• Staff (July–December) = the staff run-rate + the new trainers' monthly cost (heads × salary × (1 + on-costs) ÷ 1,000) from their start month inclusive; use IF on the month number.
• Rent and utilities (July–December) = the monthly amount on Inputs. Marketing (July–December) = that month's budget × (1 + uplift).
• EBITDA = revenue − direct costs − staff − rent and utilities − marketing.
• EBITDA bridge (budget → LE, favourable positive, in this order): volume = (LE − budget member-months) × (budget fee − budget direct cost) ÷ 1,000; membership fee = LE revenue − LE member-months × budget fee ÷ 1,000; direct cost per member = LE member-months × budget direct cost ÷ 1,000 − LE direct costs; then the staff, rent and utilities and marketing variances. Budget EBITDA + the six items must equal LE EBITDA: show the difference in the check cell.
• Summary: margins = EBITDA ÷ revenue; LE average fee = LE revenue × 1,000 ÷ LE member-months; EBITDA needed in Jul–Dec = full-year budget EBITDA − Jan–Jun actual EBITDA; the gap = Jul–Dec forecast EBITDA − what is needed.
• No rounding. Results are graded to within 0.05%.

Data source

Nakhla Fitness Co. is a fictional company created for this course; its budget, actuals and drivers are illustrative and do not describe any real business.