The bootstrap: standard errors and intervals
Resample the data with replacement many times, recompute the statistic each time, and use the spread of those replicates to estimate its standard error and a confidence interval (percentile or BCa).
- statistic computed on bootstrap resample (n draws with replacement)
- number of resamples (the engine defaults to 10 000)
- type 7 quantile of the replicates at probability
- bias correction: how far the replicates sit below the original estimate
- acceleration, from the jackknife (leave-one-out) values and their mean ar heta_{(cdot)}
- adjusted probability at which the replicate quantile is read, for each end
When to use
- Standard errors and intervals for statistics without a simple formula (median, trimmed mean, ratio, correlation, percentile) or when the normal approximation is doubtful.
- Prefer BCa over the plain percentile interval for skewed or biased statistics.
Assumptions
- The observations are an independent random sample, so the sample stands in for the population (resample whole units; for time series or clusters use block or cluster resampling).
- n is not tiny: with small samples every bootstrap interval tends to be too narrow.
- Statistics that depend on a few extreme values (maximum, minimum) are poorly bootstrapped.
How to interpret
- The bootstrap distribution shows how much the statistic would vary across samples; it is not a picture of the population.
- A 95% bootstrap interval is a confidence interval with approximately (not exactly) 95% coverage.
- Results depend slightly on the random seed; record the seed and so the analysis can be reproduced.
Common mistakes
- Thinking resampling creates new information or fixes a biased sample.
- Resampling individual observations when the data are paired, clustered or serially dependent.
- Using too few resamples (hundreds) for interval end points.
Example
Sample 12, 15, 9, 20, 14, 11, 30, 13; median = 13.5. With = 10 000 and seed 42: bootstrap SE = 2.04; 95% percentile interval [11, 20]; BCa interval [11, 17.5] (). The median of only 8 values has a lumpy bootstrap distribution, so interval ends land on data values or midpoints.