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Operating model

Working capital schedule

Forecast receivables, inventory and payables from days, and get the cash flow sign right.

30 minintermediateFree lesson

Learning objectives

  • Calculate receivable, inventory and payable days from reported figures
  • Forecast working-capital balances from days assumptions
  • Link the change in working capital to cash flow with the correct sign

A retailer can be profitable and still run out of cash, because cash is tied up in stock on the shelves and in money customers owe. Rawdah Home Retail Co. shows it: between FY2023 and FY2025, inventory rose from 187.2 to 268.4 while payables barely moved, and cash fell. Rawdah Home Retail Co. is a fictional retailer; all figures are SAR millions and illustrative.

The working capital schedule turns operating assumptions (how fast customers pay, how long stock sits, how long Rawdah takes to pay suppliers) into balance-sheet lines, and the change in those balances into cash flow.

Days-based forecasting

Receivables = Revenue × DSO ÷ 365 · Inventory = COGS × DIO ÷ 365 · Payables = COGS × DPO ÷ 365

DSO
days sales outstanding: receivables ÷ revenue × 365
DIO
days inventory outstanding, on COGS (inventory is carried at cost)
DPO
days payables outstanding, on COGS (suppliers bill at cost)
NWC
receivables + inventory − payables
Cash flow effect

Cash flow from working capital = NWCₜ₋₁ − NWCₜ

NWCₜ − NWCₜ₋₁
an increase in working capital absorbs cash, so it enters the cash flow statement as a negative

Why days work as a driver. A balance expressed in days says how many days of flow are sitting on the balance sheet. Receivables are measured against revenue because customers owe the selling price. Inventory and payables are measured against COGS because stock is carried, and suppliers are paid, at cost. Days stay fairly stable as a business grows, so balances grow with activity unless something changes how the business operates.

Putting the three together gives the cash conversion cycle: DSO + DIO − DPO, the number of days between paying suppliers and collecting from customers. Rawdah's was 80.0 days in FY2025A and is 76 days in the FY2026E plan. Each day is worth real money: at FY2026E COGS, one day of inventory is about SAR 2.6 m. That is how a practitioner sizes an inventory-reduction programme or a negotiation for longer supplier terms.

Limitations. Days are calculated on year-end balances, so a retailer with seasonal stock build-ups can look very different at another point in the year. Check that the year-end date is comparable across years, and use averages if the history is distorted. Treat sharp improvements in the forecast with suspicion: shorter inventory days need a reason (better ranging, fewer slow-moving lines), and stretching suppliers has a limit.

The schedule ends in one line, the change in net working capital, which flows into the cash flow statement in the three-statement lesson.

Calculation
Exercise 1

Calculate

Rawdah's FY2026E revenue is 1,621.3 (SAR m) and the receivable-days assumption is 24 days. What are forecast trade receivables?

Concept check
Exercise 2

Check your understanding

Net working capital rises from 240 to 260 during the year. What does that do to cash flow from operations?

Select one answer
Model · 2 tabs
Exercise 3

Challenge: Rawdah's working capital schedule

On the Working capital tab:

  1. B5:B7: FY2025A receivable, inventory and payable days from the reported balances (receivables on revenue; inventory and payables on COGS; days in year on Inputs).
  2. Rows 9–11, FY2026E–FY2028E: balances from the days in rows 5–7.
  3. Row 12: net working capital for all four years.
  4. Row 15: the cash flow effect of the change in NWC (an increase is negative).
0/19 cells entered · Ctrl+. jumps to the next empty cell
Inputs!A1

FY2025A figures from the reported accounts and the base-case drivers.

ABCDE
1Working capital inputsFY2025AFY2026EFY2027EFY2028E
2Revenue (SAR m)1,497.0
3Cost of goods sold (SAR m)890.7
4Revenue growth8.3%6.7%6.0%
5Gross margin40.5%40.8%41.0%
6
7Trade receivables (SAR m)102.5
8Inventory (SAR m)268.4
9Trade payables (SAR m)134.2
10
11Receivable days (DSO, on revenue)242322
12Inventory days (DIO, on COGS)108105102
13Payable days (DPO, on COGS)565758
14
15Days in year365
InputYou build (dashed while empty)Given, lockedWorking capital inputs

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